The New World Order is becoming one of the defining geopolitical issues of the 21st century. The world is experiencing one of the most significant historical transitions since World War II…
Iran, the United States, and the Battle Over the New World Order: From the Transformation of Global Power to War and the Redefinition of Balance
The world today is experiencing one of the most sensitive historical periods of transition; a period in which many of the structures and rules established after World War II are facing serious challenges, and signs of a changing international order can be observed across different regions.
From rising tensions in Europe to the growing competition between major powers in East Asia, the crises in the Middle East, China’s increasing military capabilities around Taiwan, and the transformation of security balances in different parts of the world, all indicate that the international system is entering a new phase.
From this perspective, the issue is not merely a collection of regional conflicts; rather, it is part of a much larger competition over shaping the future global order.
The End of the Old Order and the Changing Role of the United States
After World War II, the United States emerged as the world’s leading economic and military power. The Bretton Woods financial system, the global position of the U.S. dollar, and the creation of institutions such as the United Nations, the Security Council, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank were all parts of a structure that shaped the modern international order.
Although the United States was the dominant power within this system, it operated according to the rules of that very order and defined its role primarily as the protector and manager of the global structure.
This order, which many describe as a globalist system, attempted to manage competition among different countries within a framework of established rules. Institutions such as the Security Council, the G7, and other international structures were created within this framework.
However, over time, the cost of maintaining this role increased significantly for the United States. Its extensive military presence in Europe, East Asia, the Middle East, and other regions created enormous security and financial burdens for Washington.
The United States spent hundreds of billions of dollars annually maintaining military bases, managing international crises, and preserving the global balance of power.
But gradually, a fundamental question emerged:
Should the United States continue serving the global system, or should the global system serve American interests?
According to this perspective, the main disagreement within the West is not about the existence of the system itself, but rather about the relationship between the United States and that system.
One viewpoint argues that America should continue acting as the guardian of the existing order, while another believes that the United States should gain greater control over this structure and determine the rules of the future global order from a position of dominance
Iran: The Connection Point of the Competition Between the United States, China, and Russia
Within this analytical framework, Iran is not viewed merely as a regional issue; rather, it is considered one of the key points in the competition between major global powers.
Iran’s geographical position, its energy resources, its proximity to critical oil and gas transportation routes, its connection to the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, as well as its relations with Russia and China, have given the country strategic importance.
According to this perspective, if the United States succeeds in changing Iran’s position and influence, it would not only achieve a regional success but could also affect broader global power calculations.
China, as one of the world’s largest energy consumers, depends heavily on secure energy transportation routes. Russia, following recent geopolitical developments, has redirected a significant part of its energy relations toward Asia, particularly China and India.
From this point of view, the relationship between Iran, Russia, and China represents one of the important elements in the balance of power against American influence.
European Energy and the Importance of the Middle East
One of the major focuses of this analysis is the issue of European energy security.
After Europe reduced its dependence on Russian energy resources, the need for alternative sources increased significantly.
From this perspective, if the United States gains greater control over Middle Eastern energy routes, it would obtain an important tool for increasing its influence over Europe.
According to this narrative, competition over the Middle East is not simply a struggle over one region; rather, it is part of a broader competition over energy routes and the future economic structure of the world.
War and Negotiation: Two Parallel Paths
In this analysis, war and negotiation are not considered separate processes.
Every war eventually leads to negotiations, and each side attempts to transform its achievements on the battlefield into political leverage at the negotiation table.
Negotiation does not necessarily mean the end of competition; rather, it represents another stage of managing that competition.
Each side attempts to strengthen its position and secure a better role in the future international order.
Intelligence, Radar Systems, and Modern Warfare
In modern warfare, military power is not determined only by firepower.
Intelligence capabilities, surveillance systems, radar networks, cyber capabilities, battlefield control, and decision-making processes play extremely important roles.
Each side attempts to limit the opponent’s intelligence capabilities and reduce its ability to analyze and respond effectively.
Therefore, targeting surveillance centers, radar systems, and communication infrastructure has become a major element of modern warfare.
Furthermore, conducting large-scale ground operations requires troop deployment, logistical support, secure supply lines, and the ability to sustain operations over time.
Without these factors, even a major military power can face serious difficulties in maintaining and consolidating its position.
The Importance of Military Deployment and the Limits of Military Operations
According to this analysis, one of the decisive factors in warfare is the ability to deploy forces and maintain their support.
For a large-scale operation, air strikes alone are not sufficient; there is a need for ground forces, supply networks, nearby bases, and continuous logistical support.
If the opposing side can target troop movements, military bases, and supply lines, maintaining a long-term operational presence becomes far more difficult.
Therefore, future conflicts may involve a combination of limited strikes, air operations, intelligence warfare, and gradual pressure campaigns.
The Role of Society and Psychological Preparedness
One of the most important aspects of any military crisis is public morale and social unity.
War does not only take place on the battlefield; it also takes place within the minds and emotions of societies.
Maintaining calm, accurately understanding the situation, preventing psychological collapse, and preserving national cohesion are factors that can influence the outcome of a crisis.
Accepting the difficult realities of war does not mean surrender; rather, it can help societies make more rational decisions and become better prepared for challenging circumstances.
In this perspective, psychological resilience is considered as important as military capabilities. A society that understands the complexity of a crisis and maintains internal unity is believed to have a greater ability to withstand pressure.
The Importance of Understanding the Larger Picture
According to this viewpoint, daily events should not be analyzed separately from one another.
Military developments, diplomatic negotiations, changes in alliances, energy disputes, regional conflicts, and statements made by different countries are all connected parts of a larger geopolitical transformation.
The ability to understand the broader framework allows observers to analyze individual events within a wider context.
From this perspective, the most important question is not only what happened, but also:
Why did it happen? What larger strategy does it serve? And how does it fit into the changing structure of global power?
Conclusion: The World at the Threshold of a New Order
Based on this analysis, today’s global developments cannot be understood as isolated events.
The crises in the Middle East, the competition between the United States and China, the war between Russia and Ukraine, energy security challenges, the changing role of the United States, and the transformation of international security structures are all parts of a much larger process.
The world appears to be in a transitional period in which the previous order has weakened, while a new order has not yet been fully established.
In such a period, having a comprehensive perspective becomes extremely important, because understanding the connections between different events provides a clearer view of possible future developments.
However, it should be noted that this is one interpretation of current geopolitical developments. Among international relations experts, there are significant disagreements regarding these assumptions, the role of different actors, and the possible direction of the future global order.
Different analysts offer different explanations for the transformations taking place in the international system, and the final shape of the emerging order remains uncertain.
Author: Abolfazl Ezzoleslami